Zimbabwe hyperinflation update

It seems that the Zimbabwean central bank is fighting the inflation in Zimbabwe by lopping 10 zeroes off the end of its currency, making 10,000,000,000 Z$ into 1 Z$. Sadly, as mentioned by the Guardian, a new Z$ is not enough to buy a loaf of bread...
Will this ploy to control inflation work? Of course not. This simply makes it easier for people to read the amounts of money they are spending and receiving, and even that, only for a few months, till hyperinflation makes the value of the new Z$ high enough for the CB to lop off more zeroes from it.
The way to really curtail hyperinflation is to stop printing currency to pay the military. While printing currency allows Mugabe to pay his soldiers in the short-term, this printed money ultimately goes to the open market, where, due to the steady, unrelenting inflow of Zimbabwe dollars in circulation, the Zimbabwe dollar steadily loses its value. The solution for Zimbabwe then really is that simple: stop printing paper money so fast that it drives your economy into hyperinflation. Unfortunately, because Mugabe is currently running a somewhat unpopular regime, that is unlikely to happen for quite a while, which means that we will hear about the Zimbabwe central bank re-revaluating Zimbabwe dollars fairly soon.

[via Guardian]

Booming Brazil

There is an article in the New York Times today on the economic boom that Brazil is experiencing currently. While the United States suffers through an annual economic growth rate of 1.9%, Brazil's growth rate for the last year was upwards of 5%. While not as frenetic a pace as China or India, it is probably a much more managable growth rate for Brazilian businesses, allowing them to transition more smoothly into the more prosperous economy. Even more encouraging is the news that, during this economic boom, the income gap between the rich and the poor has shrunk by 6 percentage points. The article credits the growth to government programs such as Bolsa Familia, which provides food subsidies for lower-income families, and the creation of government-backed microloan banks that provide capital to small businesses.
However, amid all the back-clapping for Brazil, the New York Times mentioned some things positively that I did not find as reassuring:

In fact, with a stronger currency and inflation mostly in check, Brazilians are on a spending spree that has become a prime motor for the economy, which grew 5.4 percent last year.

They are buying both Brazilian goods and a rising flood of imported products. Many businesses have relaxed credit terms to allow Brazilians to pay for refrigerators, cars and even plastic surgery over years instead of months, despite some of the highest interest rates in the world. In June the country reached 100 million credit cards issued, a 17 percent jump over last year.

It seems to me that this is the same sort of consumer exuberance, propped up by possibly dubious credit/loan practices that put the American economy in the disastrous position it is in today. In the short run, such a sudden increase in purchasing ability makes perceived wealth of consumers increase, but in the long run, it simply increases the debt that they carry on their shoulders. Therefore, while the economic growth on the shoulders of domestic growth is likely a positive occurrence, if that domestic growth encourages behavior that is driving an increase in irresponsible indebtedness for average Brazilians, I do not believe it is in the best interest of Brazilians or their economy.

[via NYT]

Post-scarcity civilizations (like the Culture)

What exactly is a post-scarcity civilization? A post-scarcity civilization is a society in which members of the society do not work in order to sustain themselves (and their families) but because they enjoy the work that they do. I have been fascinated by this idea ever since I started reading Iain Banks' series of novels about the Culture, a galaxy-spanning post-scarcity civilization. While he does not tackle the Culture directly in any of his novels, the underlying structure of the civilization is made clear in each of his books.
And it is beautiful. Like Banks says in a recent CNN interview, it is a sort of a "secular heaven" for social liberals. Generally speaking, everyone has as much of everything that they could possibly want, to the point that nobody really hoards anything anymore. Commercial ventures are created and dissolved based on whim - some member of the Culture may have found it interesting to run such an enterprise for a decade or so and tired of it, dissolving it at his pleasure. The government is generally non-existent. The only things tying the entire Culture together is the common set of ideas regarding way of life and the technology that sustains that way of life. Aside from that, local bureaucratic things are handled by sentient beings who enjoy administering to such things (with trillions of members, it becomes somewhat easier to find individuals willing to take care of the "annoying things"). There are no real trials because there is little crime in the Culture, as there is no real necessity driving criminal behavior. Any crimes that do transpire seem to be handled by social exclusion, exile from the Culture being a social punishment for the crime.
Admittedly, this seems a utopian society. But that is a very plausible state of being for a post-scarcity civilization. What is the need for an overbearing laws and government administrators in a situation where resources are not limited? The major reason for government is the "equitable" distribution of a limited set of resources amongst the population. With the limit lifted, there is no longer a reason for a strong government. To some extent, the idea of economics also evaporates as there are no longer limited resources for which individuals must compete... Thinking about post-scarcity civilizations is a scary thought, but pleasantly so (if that is possible). It opens up the possibility of a society not based on ties of excluding others and defending one's group from outsiders but rather on a common set of ideas, thought structure, and way of life... Some might call it anarchy but if, in this anarchy, everyone gets what they want/need, is an anarchy so bad?

[more info about the Culture at io9]

Aside: In the recent interview, Banks suggest that the path to human inception into the Culture depends largely on genetic modification. Really interesting that somebody comes out in favor of genetic modification. I always thought it was sort of an inevitable part of human future, good or bad, which would, at first, differentiate rich and poor humans even more, but ultimately benefit everyone, but Banks really takes it quite a bit further. [via CNN]

Chinese Food in Flushing

Ever since I went to Flushing for my cousin's party in June, I have been intrigued by the semi-urban neighborhood that is Flushing. It seemed vibrant for all sorts of unexpected reasons: it has a large immigrant population, scores of relatively active activists protesting and lobbying for all sorts of causes, and a couple of streets where there are actually more pedestrians than cars (GASP!). But, not knowing much about that part of Queens (an outer borough of New York City), I was hesitant to go forth to Flushing again. However, it seems the New York Times has come to my aid this time... Aside from the article linked to below, they also have a pretty interesting "Interactive Graphic" that lays out some of the foods available near the Flushing Main St. subway stop (on the 7 subway line). For anyone else who is interested, check it out.

[via NYT]

File sharing and the Music Industry's Response

The Guardian has an interesting article on the history of digital file sharing and the music industry's reaction to said file sharing. The author points out that the music industry' years of stubbornly refusing to accept that the digital medium has "bred a killer strain of antibiotic-resistant filesharing technology that grows more and more difficult to police by the year." I think that is almost 100% true. The author (Doctorow) also has a fairly clear alternative response laid out for the industry (albeit probably a little late in the game):

* acknowledge that it's going to happen;
* find a place to collect a toll;
* charge a fee that's low enough to get buy-in from the majority;
* ignore the penny-ante fee evaders;
* sue the blistering crap out of the big-time fee-evaders.

If the music industry had, like the author suggests, found a way to get most people to pay for accessing a network like Napster in the early days of music file sharing, it would probably not find itself in the poor position it is now: hated by a majority of consumers while not really making much money in the process. The music industry will have to reshape its approach to the digital medium or face the prospect of a (timely) death.

[via Guardian]

Governments' UFO Investigations

Finally, the New York Times has published an opinion piece relating to a topic near and dear to any X-Files fan's heart: UFOs. I don't know if they were being tongue-in-cheek by putting it in or whether the author actually convinced them that UFO investigations is a topic that is part of "all the news that's fit to print". I do not personally believe that aliens are visiting earth regularly (in their ethereal forms) just to study us, but I do find the evidence collected on the topic to be really interesting (a really interesting book that I read a long time ago on the topic of UFOs was Chariots of the Gods, by Erich von Däniken; generally ignored by most, it was actually a really good argument in favor of historical visits made by aliens shaping the cultural beliefs of human society). The one disappointing part of the article was the sad attempt to make UFO studies more important by tying them to terrorists; if guerilla fighters/terrorists/rebels/etcetera really have access to technology that developed nations cannot detect, we would be in far more trouble right now than we can imagine. In general, a strong effort to engage the public on the topic of UFOs (aside from the cheap attempt at a terrorism tie-in).

[via NYT]

Afghanistan and the War against Drugs

Not sure what I actually think of the article or the comments following after it. But the whole problem is really interesting: how exactly can a foreign government help another nation, each with its own internal politics, reduce its drug protection? Or is it a lost battle and should be given up on as such? Moreover, should we even attempt to curb the farming and production of illicit drugs? Would it be better to just make them legal and astound ourselves by the consequent reduction in demand?

[via NYT]

Doctors and Medicare

It seems that private practice doctors and hospitals get paid differently for Medicare patients under the current system. Due to this distinction within the system, private practice doctors seem to order a lot more tests on expensive machinery than do hospitals. The writer of this Op-Ed (a doctor himself) advocates bringing both medical care facilities (private practices and hospitals) under the same umbrella with regard to payment methods. He says that instead of being paying private practitioners based on the number and complexity of services rendered to a patient, Medicare should pay them the same way it pays hospitals, by "case rate", which determines the payment to the hospital for a Medicare patient based on the underlying illness. I am sure this has its own downfalls; for instance, what about patients whose illnesses are misdiagnosed (or worse, undiagnosed). But, ultimately, I wonder if this would not be a less wasteful way of paying doctors for taking care of Medicare patients.

[via NYT]

Calling 1962 ...

Seems like the Soviets Russians and Americans have had enough of this fighting terrorism stuff and just want to go back to two-player sword brandishing exercises.

"While they are deploying the anti-missile systems in Poland and the Czech republic, our long-range strategic aircraft already will be landing in Cuba," the source told the paper. No final decision on landing bombers in Cuba had been taken, it added.

Today defence analysts told the Guardian there was little strategic point in using Cuba as a nuclear base - adding that the idea appeared to have been floated simply as a way of irritating the US and underscoring Russia's anger.

Actually, compared to the day-to-day nuisance that is fighting non-state actors, it is no wonder that these two superpowers are dreaming of the good old days of the USSR-USA Cold War.

[via Guardian]

Space-based solar power

Op-ed on the viability of space-based solar energy collection, beamed down to earth through radio waves.

[via NYT]

Runaway inflation causes banknote paper shortage in Zimbabwe

No, seriously... the Zimbabwe government is running out of paper to print money on. While it is partly due to the sanctions imposed on Mugabe's regime by the international community, a large reason for the lack of paper is the absurd pace at which inflation makes worthless any money that is printed in the country.

In August 2006, the central bank issued a $5 note. A $500,000 note followed a year later. On 2 May 2008, a $500m banknote hit the streets but was swiftly near worthless, and $5bn, $25bn and $50bn notes followed just a fortnight later.

It seems that today (July 23, 2008) a $100bn note is worth 7p (0.14 $US). It would be interesting (and sad) to see what it will be worth in just a few days.
But wait, there's more... the government has put a $100bn/day limit on bank withdrawals for civilians, which can buy ~1/2 a loaf of bread. On the other hand, soldiers can withdraw up $1.5tn/day, 15 times as much. Certainly doesn't smell like a military dictatorship...

[via Guardian]

Obama on Israel-Palestine and Iran

 Obama, in his trip to the Middle East (and, it seems, Europe) reiterated his stance on Israel-Palestine, perhaps a little too strongly for Palestinian tastes:

"I'm here on this trip to reaffirm the special relationship between Israel and the United States, my abiding commitment to its security, and my hope that I can serve as an effective partner, whether as a ... senator or as a president, in bringing about a more lasting peace in the region," he said.

He went on to add that Jerusalem should remain Israel's "undivided" capital, although he backtracked very soon after, saying that everything should be up for negotiation (which, I guess, includes Jerusalem, part of which was annexed by Israel during the 1967 war). Certainly not his best bit of diplomacy...

[via Guardian]

Congress passing bill to alleviate mortgage payer distress

Following up on my previous blog about whether, much as the US government has bailed out lenders, the government should help loan-takers. It seems that the US Congress is about to pass a bill that will allow homeowners to avoid foreclosure by taking less expensive loans backed by the US government:

The bill would let hundreds of thousands of homeowners trapped in mortgages they can't afford on homes that have plummeted in value escape foreclosure by refinancing into more affordable, fixed-rate loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration. Lenders would have to agree to take a substantial loss on the existing loans, and in return, they would walk away with at least some payoff and avoid the often-costly foreclosure process.

I guess this is the path that the government was forced to take, having already bailed out major lenders. I still don't know if I am 100% on board with massive bailouts like this (regardless of whether it is for companies or people), but I am glad that the government is not simply focusing on corporate problems and entirely ignoring the people.

[via NYT]

To all who feel Obama is changing his tune

Really, the piece covers all the complaints I have heard made by people who say they don't like Obama. As the New Yorker article explains, most of the "shifts" aren't really shifts, although he does concede one (maybe two) "substantive tweaks" (as he calls them). And, I hate to put too sharp a point to it, are we really okay with any of the alternatives?

[via New Yorker Magazine]

Texas governor wants biofuels mandate reduced

Today, the governor of Texas, Rick Perry, came out against the required year-over-year increase of ethanol in gasoline products. He made his point in an ever-so-Texan turn of phrase:

"When you find yourself in a hole, you have to quit digging," Mr. Perry said in an interview. "And we are in a hole."

Linguistic aesthetics aside, this is really interesting as it seems that the tide may finally be turning against the abomination that is biofuel. As John Oliver pointed out in his weekly podcast, using corn for biofuels is the ultimate slap in the face of developing nations - you may not have enough food to feed yourselves, but we'll continue burning the food we do have to run our cars.

[via NYT]

American consumer squeezed

I really don't know how I feel about this mess. In general, I feel everyone should take care of their own problems, but the American government is helping out the lenders that provided credit (ie, debt) to consumers without carefully considering if they could pay it back. Should the American government not help the people that took the credit (ie, debt) from lenders?

[via NYT]

India no-confidence vote

India's nuclear deal with the United States brought about a vote of confidence for the government that it barely survived today. Both leftist and right-wing parties rose up again Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's coalition government, with the Communist Party and their brethren claiming that the treaty "would make India little more than an American pawn."
Let's hope this sentiment was purely that, an emotionally charged statement made to cause anti-American fervor within the opposition to the Congress-led government of India because in all other ways, this deal seems to be practically a freebie for India. In exchange for opening up most of its civilian nuclear plants, India gets access to nuclear technology and materials from other nations. Note that I am not saying that India has to give up its nuclear arsenal or sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty... Unlike all other nations who have access to international nuclear technology and material markets (aside from powerhouses like the US), all other nations had to sign the treaty and most had to give up their nuclear arsenals (if they had them). That puts India on equal footing with superpowers like the United States and Russia. That is why I reiterate, I hope the Communist Party was only trying to drum up votes when it claimed that this treaty makes India an American pawn; if anything, India comes out looking far more powerful than it ever has before.
As an aside, I would like to note that the Indian PM was put to a vote of no-confidence because he did what was in the best interest of the nation. I wonder whether such a vote would have arisen had the deal been put through by any nation besides the US...

[via Guardian]

Women Workers Decreasing

Another economy-related article, this one pointing out that, for the first time since the mid-1900s, the percentage of women employed in the workforce has decreased from the beginning of an economic expansion to its end. Initially, people (read: economists) thought this was due to womens' shift in priorities from the 70s to today, but they feel otherwise now:

After moving into virtually every occupation, women are being afflicted on a large scale by the same troubles as men: downturns, layoffs, outsourcing, stagnant wages or the discouraging prospect of an outright pay cut. And they are responding as men have, by dropping out or disappearing for awhile.

So, while the increasing economic troubles may have a silver lining in shifts in coca production or innovation in energy production/consumption trends, there is a significant social cost to all that silver lining.

[via NYT]

War on Drugs - Take Two

I just read this article on new farming incentives offered by the Bolivian president, Evo Morales, to his farmers:

The unlikely advocate for change is the Bolivian president, Evo Morales, who as leader of a powerful coca growers' union fought U.S. crop-substitution programs for two decades. But rising grain prices and food shortages have made Morales reconsider, and he is now asking coca farmers to supplement their crops with rice and corn as a way of holding down coca production while helping to feed the poorest country in South America.

It still takes a lot more effort to grow rice/corn/etc. than coca (which, it seems from the article, grows with little effort in northern South America). However, thanks to the new incentives put into place by Morales in parts of Bolivia, many farmers seem to be converting part of their coca fields to rice and corn fields willingly.
Sort of interesting that the rise in food and gas prices is causing the change that the US has been trying to force on cocaine production for so many years. It shows that while food and gas prices' increase has hurt everyone, there are some (presumably) positive side effects to the crisis.
But, of course, the best part of the article was Morales's indignantly revolutionary cry, "Viva coca! Death to the Yankees!". I guess Morales wants to clearly separate his program for replacing part of the coca production in Bolivia from the US-endorsed program to replace all coca production with stuff like bananas (whose price is also increasing, apparently). Surprising what decades of meddling with a continent can do to one's reputation...

[via IHT]

RESET

Clearly, I haven't written in this blog in a long time... "I've been busy" would be the perfect excuse. In fact, it'd be so perfect that it would not really be an excuse. I have been busy. But, this post is not about excuses. This post is simply a signal to all those who care (caretown, population: 0) that I am restarting with this blog.

The new blog will differ somewhat from the old blog. For one, I don't think I'll be writing such long pieces as I used to nearly as often (that came out awkward; read: less long posts). More likely, you will receive interesting news tidbits with my personal commentary attached. I assume nobody actually cares, but it is also a place for me to store news/information that I can cleverly bring up in conversations to seem erudite. To be honest, that's probably the main reason for this blog - I need frequent confirmation of how highly people think of me. Alright, that's that.

RESET.